The graph below shows sales comparisons from 2014 and 2015 for Red Deer.
As you can see the sales are down substantially, and I am of the opinion that we will see this continue thru 2016.
This next market update graph shows us the sales and inventory for January 2016. We still have two days of sales to report so I am anticipating we will see sales down in January 2016 from January 2015 by about 10%.
Then look at comparable inventory levels. We have gone from 388 properties for sale in January 2015 to 561 properties for sale this year as of January 29, 2016.
When you look at the inventory in a certain price point and the sales in this price point the sales for that month indicate what the market can consume in that time frame. For example, if you have 20 properties for sale and four units are sold this would mean there is a five month supply of inventory offered for sale.
When you see more than five month’s inventory available to sell compared to the sales in that price point it is my opinion that you have a buyer’s market. I further believe a balanced market is four month’s supply of inventory to sales or four times the inventory over sales. Anything less is a seller’s market.
Look at the inventory levels by price point and the sales in the same price point and it is my opinion when you reach five months inventory you are in a buyer’s market. I also believe that our inventories will be increasing the closer we get to our spring selling season. Some neighbourhoods will see bigger price adjustments this year than other neighbourhoods. I am also seeing more buyers not getting their conditions removed to complete their offers this year.
So, should you wait to put your home on the market? There are several things to consider:
1) Where do you think the market will be in the spring?
2) Can I afford to wait the market out?
If you have more questions on our on our market or your neighbourhood please send me an email at firstname.lastname@example.org , or you can always give me a call at 403.309.5000.
I will be happy to discuss your specific situation.
Jim McLeod | Broker